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With the assistance of the financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald and the University of Chicago’s Center for Research in Security Prices, Thorpe was able to compute the historical correlation between the market’s prediction of future earnings and stock price performance after a reasonable time period. The experiment had a negative result: “The correlation between the market’s prediction and the actual earnings and price were essentially zero.”
From the report: “To prove that the market’s estimation of company characteristics is reliable, I’ve given it a test. If the market’s forecast of a company’s future earnings, say, or its stock price, is good, then I predict that the company will meet those earnings or will be trading at the predicted price—after a reasonable period of time. The market has thus passed its test.”
Within the span of a few hours, the stock market fell nearly 500 points (from about 2,400 to 1,900) on news that the popular social media company had missed its quarterly earnings forecast. That’s the equivalent of losing $100 for every Facebook investor.
Bruce Jacobs did not tell the market about his inside information, but rather tried to profit from the disconfirming information by shorting the stock. His analysis revealed that the stock price had fallen $35 from its high to its low and was likely to fall further.
The reason for the sell-off was that insiders at the company knew of a string of controversies surrounding the company’s founder, Mark Zuckerberg. These controversies included allegations of harassment of women at the company, which were allegedly known to Zuckerberg at the time, as well as the company’s increasing dependence on the Google’s search engine. It’s not clear whether this information was known to the market.
by Bruce Jacobs, Market Watch, August 28, 1990: Jacobs, a former risk arbitrageur in the arbitrage department of the Whitney, is now at the helm of the $120 million, Kleinwort Benson fund. He has a simple formula for taking profits on his picks.
by Fred Hassan, Derivatives Strategy, December 2000: In this interview, Jacobs discusses transparency, hedging, and risk management and explains why disclosure in financial markets is important.
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